La Jolla Visibility Today: Friday Morning, Still Thursday's Number

Friday, November 13

Friday morning at the Cove, and the newest number is still Thursday's.

It rained hard overnight, and today's forecast number was built before the rain landed, so treat it as optimistic.

La Jolla visibility today is a C. The beta model says 10 to 14 feet, medium confidence. That run is stamped Thursday, Nov 12, at 1:15 p.m. Pacific. No Friday run is published yet. C is the middle letter and about a dozen feet is the middle of the range. Medium confidence means it can miss.

Here is what the odds look like. About 52 percent on the C. About 30 percent on a B. About 18 percent on a D. Nothing on an A or an F. So think mid, with a real shot at a little better and a smaller shot at a little worse. Not a lock.

The swell in the file is a west swell, about 2.7 feet at 9.8 seconds, with another 2 feet of west swell at 8.7 seconds underneath. Period is the seconds between waves. Longer period means more push. The model also lists surf near 3.9 feet, and it flags that as enough to stir up the shallows. It does call the overall swell load modest, which is the good news.

Wind in that run was light early, 3 to 5 mph through the morning. It picks up around noon, and the file shows about 9 to 10 mph by early afternoon with gusts near 13. The model's best window is early morning to late morning, before the wind builds.

Water is warm. The model's own estimate is 74.2 degrees. The NDBC buoy, station 46254, reads 75.4. The rain field in that file had not caught up. NWS observations at San Diego airport, KSAN, show heavy rain and thunderstorms from about 3:50 a.m. to 6:35 a.m. Pacific this morning, tapering to light rain, then cloudy by 6:40 a.m. Showers are forecast Saturday. Runoff usually clouds the nearshore and knocks vis down. The county's standing guidance is to stay out of the ocean for 72 hours after rain of 0.2 inch or more, so expect a rain advisory over the weekend.

The newest Scripps Pier image is Thursday's 4:31 p.m. capture. The camera grader did not run on it, so there is no camera grade. Friday's frames are not in yet.

The tide times in that file belong to Thursday, with the low at 5:15 p.m. Look up Friday's table for your own window. The file also has no county water advisory list, so check the county map before you kit up.

Plan on about a dozen feet, go early, and check again when Friday's run lands. Full numbers are on the La Jolla forecast page.

Our vis model is in beta and still being validated, so treat the grade as odds, not a promise.