La Jolla conditions
La Jolla visibility today, Oct 29: 74 degrees the week of Halloween
The water forgot what month it is. The model still says C.
La Jolla visibility for Thursday, Oct 29: the Dive Pro beta model says C, 10 to 14 feet, medium confidence. Same grade it has posted most of the week. The story today is the thermometer.
The Scripps nearshore buoy (NOAA station 46254) reads 73.9 degrees. That's August water, and Saturday is Halloween. The model's own water temperature input sits at 76 and runs about 9 degrees warmer than what it treats as normal for this date.
Here's why that matters for what you see. Warm water is lighter, so it sits on top like a lid. In the fall, cold water from down deep usually gets pulled up when the wind blows the right way. The model's upwelling wind number today is zero. Nothing is lifting the lid. Warm doesn't mean clear. It can mean a green, soupy top layer. What it does mean is you can leave the hood in the car.
Now the water itself. Two things are rolling in. A south-southwest swell around 2.7 feet at about 13 seconds, the long, organized kind that wraps around the point. And a west wind swell around 1.8 feet at about 5 seconds, the short, choppy kind that kicks sand off the bottom. That short stuff is a big reason this is a C and not a B.
Wind is a non-factor. It tops out under 8 mph, mostly after 2 PM.
Tide is the part to plan around. High is a little over 6 feet late morning, around 11. Then it drains to a minus tide of about half a foot below zero around 7 PM. Nearly 7 feet of water leaving in one afternoon pulls a lot of stuff off the shallows.
Rain is a trace today and a little more tomorrow, under a tenth of an inch either day in the model's inputs. That's not a runoff story.
The County water quality list, as of Wednesday, still has La Jolla Cove under an advisory, in place since Sept. 29, and Children's Pool under its long-running advisory. Check it before you put your face in.
The Scripps camera's last good frame was Wednesday around 4:13 PM. Today's look lands around noon.
The call: go in the morning, ideally into that late-morning high, before the tide starts pulling out. C is the most likely outcome, not a lock. The 10-day holds a C straight through Halloween.
The Dive Pro model is beta and hasn't been validated yet. Treat the grade as odds, not a promise.