La Jolla conditions
La Jolla visibility today, Oct 30: still a C, still bathwater
A noon high, a minus tide after dark, and a forecast that's two days old.
La Jolla visibility for Friday, Oct 30: the Dive Pro beta model has today at C, 10 to 14 feet, medium confidence. One honest note up top. That call comes from the model's last run, Wednesday night. It hasn't posted a fresh one since. So treat it as a two-day-old guess, not this morning's read.
The thermometer hasn't budged. The Scripps nearshore buoy (NOAA station 46254) read 73.9 degrees at 6:26 this morning. Same as yesterday. Tomorrow is Halloween and the water still thinks it's Labor Day.
Now what's rolling in. The buoy sees about 2.3 feet of swell at 14 seconds, coming out of the west-northwest. Long period means the waves are spaced way apart and reach deep, so they shove water around the reef even when they look small from the lot. The model's Wednesday run had the main swell out of the south-southwest, around 3 feet at about 13 seconds. The buoy and the model don't agree on direction this morning. The buoy is what's actually out there.
Wind isn't the story. The model run had gusts topping out around 12 mph. Rain is under a tenth of an inch in its inputs today. Not a runoff day.
Tide is the part to plan around. NOAA's La Jolla station has a high of about 5.9 feet right around noon. Then it drains all afternoon to about a third of a foot below zero around 8 PM. Six feet of water leaving after lunch pulls sand and gunk off the shallows. Morning into that noon high is the better bet.
The County water quality list, as of Thursday, still had La Jolla Cove under an advisory, in place since Sept. 29, and Children's Pool under its long-running advisory. Check it before you put your face in.
The Scripps pier camera's last good frame is still Wednesday around 4:13 PM. Nothing new since. So there's no fresh look backing up the grade today, ours included. If you go, you're the camera.
The weekend, same caveat. That Wednesday run holds a C through Saturday, then flips to a B for Sunday, Nov. 1, on a bigger, choppier swell with the most rain of the week, about four tenths of an inch. A B from a two-day-old run with rain on the way is a long way from a lock.
The call: C is the most likely outcome today, not a sure thing. Go early and ride the noon high.
The Dive Pro model is beta and hasn't been validated yet. Treat the grade as odds, not a promise.