La Jolla Visibility Today: C Grade, Then the Tide Drops

Sunday in La Jolla is another mid pack C. Our beta model has Sunday at C grade, 10 to 14 feet, medium confidence. That is the published number, from this morning's run. Diveable. Not glass.

The swell looks a little more grown-up than Saturday's. Surf sits around 3.4 feet. The main swell is about 2.6 feet out of the west-northwest at about 10 seconds, with a 1.7 foot south-southwest swell at about 12.6 seconds underneath it. Yesterday the primary swell was a shorter west at about 7 seconds. Longer period is usually less of a sand-kicker in the shallows.

So why isn't this a B? The tide. The published range is about 6.5 feet. High sits near 6 feet around 7:40 a.m., then the water dumps to a minus low around minus 0.4 feet at 2:42 p.m. The model treats that falling tide as a knock, because an outgoing tide is less likely to pull cleaner water in from offshore. Expect more pull and more nearshore stir toward lunch. The best window from the model is still early to late morning, before the breeze wakes up.

The letter is also a little less locked in than yesterday. The model puts about 53 percent on the C, about 26 percent on a D, and about 21 percent on a B. A miss is more likely to go down than up.

Wind is the easier part of Sunday. The forecast averages about 5 or 6 mph and only climbs toward 8 or 9 by late afternoon, with gusts near 15. Morning is nearly calm. Get wet early anyway. The surface should stay quieter than Saturday's.

The water is still warm for November. The buoy in the published file is reading about 75 degrees. Bring whatever rubber that number usually means for you. One buoy reading is not a full-column thermometer.

Water quality still matters more than the letter on some days. County data pulled this morning still shows the advisory at the end of Marine Street, plus the long running flags at La Jolla Cove and Children's Pool. Tourmaline Drain Outlet is flagged too. Most of the Shores stretch is open. If Marine Street or the Cove was the plan, check the county map and think about a Shores entry instead.

Camera check: the newest Scripps Pier snapshot is still Saturday's 1 p.m. slot, captured around 2 p.m. Sunday's daylight captures have not landed yet, so that image is yesterday's look. The grader also failed on that frame, which only means we do not get an auto vis grade from the cam.

Bottom line: a Sunday built on a C, a bigger tide dump, and a morning clock. Go early, keep your expectations around a dozen feet, and be happily surprised if the canyon edge is clearer. Full numbers are on the La Jolla forecast page.

Our vis model is in beta and still being validated, so treat the grade as odds, not a promise.