Weekly ocean note
NOAA just turned El Niño up
Monday’s weekly update. Not a winter forecast.
NOAA’s main El Niño number went up this week. +1.4 last time. +1.8 on Monday. That’s the news. Not the winter. One warmer week.
The eastern Pacific is even warmer. NOAA still has an Advisory on. They’re still saying this fall and winter look strong. Odds, not a lock.
La Jolla already felt warm before this table dropped. NOAA Fisheries says most of this summer’s extra heat wasn’t El Niño. A little of it might be sneaking in now. The risk is just staying warm.
Daily vis stays on the homepage. This is why the surface has felt like soup. Not a Saturday promise.
NOAA’s next official write-up is September 10. If the number moves, we edit this. We don’t write a sequel.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center weekly ENSO update, 24 August 2026. NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 13 August 2026. NOAA Fisheries California Current Marine Heatwave Tracker, 19 August 2026.